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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Gueye
Gueye, A. K., Diop, M., Sultan, B., Niang, A., Sawadogo, S. & Janicot, S. 2009. Examining the performance of a statistical downscaling method through the use of a crop model: a case study in Senegal. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: roussot 2009-10-19 22:33:50
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Categories: Society-Environment-Climate interactions
Keywords: Agriculture, Downscaling, Precipitation, Vegetation
Creators: Diop, Gueye, Janicot, Niang, Sawadogo, Sultan
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
Global circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. The aim of this work is to compare the water index of the millet potential yield (IRESP) in Kaffrine (central part of Senegal), using both observed daily rainfall and simulated rainfall from statistical downscaling. The SARRA model, from CIRAD is used to perform crop water balance. It requires climate data, soil data and crop data. IRESP is among the outputs of this model, and is highly related to the potential yield of the crop. We use the CHAC method to perform statistical downscaling. This method, originally developed for Argentina, is based on the analogues technique; using ERA40 large scale fields to generate an ensemble of local daily rainfall over the 1979-1999 period. Because the rain gauge stations network is still poor in the half eastern part of Senegal, the use of this downscaling method could be very useful for the studies on applied climatology on agriculture. This work will try to test the pertinence of the CHAC method in the context of Senegal with a combination with SARRA.
Added by: roussot