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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Martiny
Martiny, N., Chiapello, I., Jeanne, I., Marticorena, B., Sultan, B. & Fontaine, B. 2009. Advances in the analyses of the dust/climate and meningitis relationships based on a multidisciplinary approach, as part of the French AMMA programme. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: roussot 2009-10-19 16:25:57
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Categories: Aerosol and Chemistry, Society-Environment-Climate interactions
Keywords: Aerosol, Climate, Health
Creators: Chiapello, Fontaine, Jeanne, Marticorena, Martiny, Sultan
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
The meningitis belt in Western Africa (10-15°N), has the greatest incidence of the disease: 25 to 250 thousands cases, among which 10% are mortal. Social factors (seasonal migrations, immunity) predispose population to the epidemics. However, the climate and environmental conditions play an important role. Indeed, the West African meningitis epidemics, which occur in the dry season (Feb-May) coincide with periods of low humidity, windy (Harmattan), and dusty conditions. More precisely, the period of the epidemics has been proved to coincide with the maximum of winter, the extent of the epidemics has been shown to be linked to the Harmattan intensity, and, more recently, the increase in the number of cases in the epidemics has been proved to be related to the dust events occurrence. These results are based on statistical approaches.
In this paper, we propose to analyze the dust/climate and meningitis relationships using an integrated approach, based on statistical and determinist methodologies, in order to understand, and possibly predict, the epidemics in Western Africa in collaboration with specialists knowing the field and working on human and bacteriological factors of the epidemics.
For that purpose, we need: i) to create an epidemiologic and dust/climate multi-scale data base, ii) to qualify the parameters of the data base, including the epidemiologic surveys and the dust remote sensed products, iii) to carry out complete statistical analyses, at regional and local spatial scales, using the parameters of the dust-climate-meningitis data base, in order to identify the environmental variables that play a key role in the epidemics, iv) to evaluate the potential for determinist models to simulate and predict these variables in order to respond to a clear need of meningitis risk prevision in Western Africa.
The above methodology is presented and the preliminary results are shown for Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, which are among the most affected countries in Western Africa.
Added by: roussot