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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Baccia
Bacci, M., Genesio, L. & Di Vecchia, A. 2009. Translating seasonal forecasts into operational support for decision makers: limits and perspectives. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: roussot 2009-10-19 15:15:35
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Categories: Environment and Climate Monitoring, Society-Environment-Climate interactions, Weather to Climatic modelling and forecasting
Keywords: Adaptation and Mitigation, Agriculture, Early warning system, Seasonal cycle, Vegetation
Creators: Bacci, Di Vecchia, Genesio
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
Precipitation is key factor for the Sahelian cropping systems and as a consequence for the food security in this Region. The early availability of information on the development of the rain season is essential for the early warning process and the impact assessment. Since late 90’s seasonal forecasts experienced a growing role, despite the large uncertainties still present.
Many institutions produce climate seasonal forecasts for the West Africa but at the moment the differences between models’ output, their incertitude and their low spatial and temporal resolution do not provide a clear context for their operational use in the decision making process at regional and national scale. In the other hand the decision making process needs clear and univocal information on the risk level and the localization of the touched zones possibly with an evaluation of the most vulnerable groups.
An analysis pathway to translate seasonal forecast outputs into impact information to detect the possible pre-alerts situations in the Sahelian countries adding useful information for the decision making process for food crisis prevention has been conceptually developed to test methodology and information output usefulness for decision makers. Further food production impact previsions and ex-post analysis of the 2007 and 2008 rainy season in the Sahel have been compared. The aim of this paper is to present the proposed pathway and results of the test.
Added by: roussot