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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Ruti
Ruti, P. M., Barmou Batoure, M.-B., Diedhiou, A. & Dell'Aquilla, A. 2009. Seasonal error in the seasonal forecast over West Africa from European multi-model ensemble system ENSEMBLES. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: Devic 2009-10-09 09:08:44    Last Edited by: roussot 2009-10-18 20:10:33
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Categories: Weather to Climatic modelling and forecasting
Keywords: Modelling
Creators: Barmou Batoure, Dell'Aquilla, Diedhiou, Ruti
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
Africa is prone to rainfall deficits which, in severe cases, can lead to droughts and humanitarian disasters. Between 1970 and 2007 droughts were responsible for 97% of the persons killed by natural disasters in Africa. Skilful seasonal outlooks for African precipitation would help to reduce the economic hardship and humanitarian suffering experienced by many when rainfall is abnormally low. Projects are underway to provide gridded seasonal outlooks for African precipitation but no detailed assessment of their precision has been made. Here we examine the seasonal hindcast skill for precipitation over Africa available from the ENSEMBLES multimodel forecast system. This assessment is made for the period 1991-2001 and employs four of the ENSEMBLE coupled models: ECMWF, Météo-France, UK Met Office and the German Met Office both individually and weighted as a multimodel. Monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) are used for verification.
Last Edited by: roussot