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Journal Article: ID no. (ISBN etc.):  1520-0434 BibTeX citation key:  Cui2009
Cui, X., Parker, D. J. & Morse, A. P. (2009) The drying out of soil moisture following rainfall in a numerical weather prediction model, and implications for malaria prediction in West Africa. IN Weather and Forecasting, 24. 1549–1557.
Added by: Devic 2009-09-24 10:00:56    Last Edited by: Fanny Lefebvre 2010-09-23 12:00:57
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Categories: General
Keywords: Precipitation
Creators: Cui, Morse, Parker
Collection: Weather and Forecasting
Bibliographies: Prior150410

Peer reviewed
Number of views:  941
Popularity index:  49.79%
Maturity index:  accepted

 
Abstract
This paper investigates the response of the land surface and the lowest section of the atmospheric surface layer to rainfall events and through the subsequent drying out period. The impacts of these sequences of rainfall and drying events in controlling near surface temperatures are put into the context of malaria transmission modeling using temperature controls on the survivability of mosquitoes that are developing the malaria parasite. Observations using measurements from a dwelling hut, constructed to a local design at Wankama near Niamey, Niger, show that as the atmosphere gets moister and colder following rainfall, this leads to potentially higher risk of malaria transmission during the rainy days. As the atmosphere gets warmer and drier during the drying period this leads to a potentially decreasing rate of malaria transmission as the increasing temperature reduces the survivability of the mosquitoes. A numerical weather prediction model comparison shows that the high resolution limited area model out-performs the global scale model and shows good agreement with observations. Statistical analysis from the model results confirms that the findings are not restricted to a single location or single time of the day. It was also found that air temperatures over forest areas do not change as much during the study period, since the longer memory of soil moisture means there is relatively little influence of single rainfall events.
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Last Edited by: Fanny Lefebvre