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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Morsea
Morse, A. P., Jones, A. E. & Caminade, C. 2009. Seamless thinking for impacts modelling in Africa: Where we are going inQWeCI. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: Devic 2009-09-23 10:07:07    Last Edited by: roussot 2009-10-16 18:02:16
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Categories: General
Keywords: Climate, Modelling
Creators: Caminade, Jones, Morse
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
In the last 10 years there have been great advances in probabilistic climate impacts modelling with the end-to-end approach being pioneered in the DEMETER project and continued in current projects including AMMA and ENSEMBLES. The incorporation of impacts modelling and the societal relevance of climate research is a cornerstone of the WMO World Climate Research Programme, even with such support the continuation of the hard won gains of the impacts communities to work in integrated projects with the climate modelling community should not lead to complacency. It is the responsibility of the impacts modelling communities to show how the ability to develop probabilistic approaches to tackle real world issues is an essential part of any societal focus within large scale climate modelling and observation projects. Further the impacts modelling communities have to show leadership in developing new areas of research and one such example is the seamless integration of impacts models with climate model information from weather to climate timescales across a range of climate and forecast model outputs.
There is no strict definition of the seamless approach but most agree it is the inclusion of climate model data from a range of modelling systems normally bridging the gap between weather timescales and climate timescales. Therefore it is essential that the impacts modelling communities are an integral part of this development and this paper will argue that the only way of testing the success of seamless approaches is to use full integrated impacts modelling in a full end-to-end approach. The seamless approach will allow integrated impacts and climate modelling systems to be developed and verified at weather timescales before they are used for climate projections. The high variability in the African climate system across a range of timescales will provide an ideal testing ground for these new technologies and a practical place to solve the significant scientific questions that will arise in such endeavours. Africa is likely to take the full brunt of the impacts of climate change and it is essential that we develop impacts modelling systems that can make useful projections within bounded uncertainties which is a likely product of the seamless approach. This paper will show the approaches that are being developed now are the stepping stone to being seamless and how it is envisaged that they will springboard into a seamless approach in future research projects. Examples will be given from a range of health modelling approaches current in us in Africa and Europe including work on malaria and blue tongue.
Last Edited by: roussot