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Journal Article: BibTeX citation key:  Ermert2011a
Ermert, V., Fink, A. H., Jones, A. E. & Morse, A. P. (2011) Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. I. Refining the parameter settings and mathematical formulation of basic processes based on a literature review. IN Malaria Journal, 10. 35.
Added by: Andreas Fink 2011-03-04 15:13:54    Last Edited by: Andreas Fink 2011-03-04 15:16:40
 B  
Categories: General
Creators: Ermert, Fink, Jones, Morse
Collection: Malaria Journal

Peer reviewed
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Abstract
Background: A warm and humid climate triggers several water-associated diseases such as malaria. Climate- or
weather-driven malaria models, therefore, allow for a better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics. The
Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) is a mathematical-biological model of malaria parasite dynamics using daily
temperature and precipitation data. In this study, the parameter settings of the LMM are refined and a new
mathematical formulation of key processes related to the growth and size of the vector population are developed.
Methods: One of the most comprehensive studies to date in terms of gathering entomological and parasitological
information from the literature was undertaken for the development of a new version of an existing malaria model.
The knowledge was needed to allow the justification of new settings of various model parameters and motivated
changes of the mathematical formulation of the LMM.
Results: The first part of the present study developed an improved set of parameter settings and mathematical
formulation of the LMM. Important modules of the original LMM version were enhanced in order to achieve a
higher biological and physical accuracy. The oviposition as well as the survival of immature mosquitoes were
adjusted to field conditions via the application of a fuzzy distribution model. Key model parameters, including
the mature age of mosquitoes, the survival probability of adult mosquitoes, the human blood index, the
mosquito-to-human (human-to-mosquito) transmission efficiency, the human infectious age, the recovery rate,
as well as the gametocyte prevalence, were reassessed by means of entomological and parasitological
observations. This paper also revealed that various malaria variables lack information from field studies to be set
properly in a malaria modelling approach.
Conclusions: Due to the multitude of model parameters and the uncertainty involved in the setting of
parameters, an extensive literature survey was carried out, in order to produce a refined set of settings of
various model parameters. This approach limits the degrees of freedom of the parameter space of the model,
simplifying the final calibration of undetermined parameters (see the second part of this study). In addition, new
mathematical formulations of important processes have improved the model in terms of the growth of the
vector population.
Added by: Andreas Fink    Last Edited by: Andreas Fink