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Communication incl. Poster: BibTeX citation key:  Lambina
Lambin, E. F., Rasmussen, K., Mertz, O., D' Haen, S., Reenberg, A., Nielsen, J. O. & Mbow, C. 2009. Scenarios of the future of the Sahel: Integrating climate, land and socio-economic changes. Work presented at Third International AMMA Conference, July 20—24, at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Added by: Devic 2009-09-23 09:16:35    Last Edited by: roussot 2009-10-16 16:33:29
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Categories: Society-Environment-Climate interactions
Keywords: Society and Economy
Creators: D' Haen, Lambin, Mbow, Mertz, Nielsen, Rasmussen, Reenberg
Publisher: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Collection: Third International AMMA Conference

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Abstract
The impact of future climate change will not take place independently from other pervasive socio-economic trends. A meta-analysis of case studies on land use and socio-economic changes in West Africa identified emerging trends: demographic change, urbanization, migration, regional integration, international trade, regional impacts of globalisation … Dominant processes in drylands of West Africa are a reduction in labour availability in rural areas following outmigration, growth in cheap food imports, new crop varieties, cattle breeds and farming technologies, increased commodification of agricultural production, land privatization, infrastructure projects, new markets for urban or international export … This leads to a diversification of activities on-farm and off-farm, increased inflow of remittances, conflicts over resource access, social differentiation, more heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes, increase in trade, more geographic and social mobility, and new capital investments.
These trends are interacting with climate variability to determine the future vulnerability of Sahelian societies and their ecosystems. They affect adaptive strategies to climate change. Some of these processes decrease vulnerability by decoupling well-being from land productivity.
We will present four scenarios for the future of the drylands of West Africa that integrate climate, land and socio-economic changes. A scenario is a plausible and simplified description of how the future may develop. Scenarios are neither predictions nor projections. They are based on narrative story lines to describe consistently the relationships between driving forces of environmental changes and their evolution. The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) developed scenarios to explore the future of ecosystems and human well-being for the next 50 years. These scenarios consider two possible paths of world development - increasing globalization or increasing regionalization – and two approaches to ecosystem management - reactive actions that address problems only after they become obvious or proactive ecosystem management that deliberately aims for long-term maintenance of ecosystem services. The four MA scenarios were adapted to the situation of West Africa. They served as a basis to evaluate future vulnerability of Sahelian societies to climate change.
Last Edited by: roussot